Written by Mariam Kassal, Content Curator, Enconverge
Nigeria’s climate has been changing, evident in: increases in temperature; variable rainfall; rise in sea level and flooding; drought and desertification; land degradation; more frequent extreme weather events; affected fresh water resources and loss of biodiversity. The durations and intensities of rainfall have increased, producing large runoffs and flooding in many places in Nigeria.
Rainfall variation is projected to continue to increase. Precipitation in southern areas is expected to rise and rising sea levels are expected to exacerbate flooding and submersion of coastal lands. Droughts have also become a constant in Nigeria, and are expected to continue in Northern Nigeria, arising from a decline in precipitation and rise in temperature. Lake Chad and other lakes in the country are drying up and at risk of disappearing.
Temperature has risen significantly since the 1980s. Climate projections for the coming decades reveal a significant increase in temperature over all the ecological zones. This rapid review synthesizes evidence on the impact of climate change in Nigeria (geographic, sectoral, demographic and security impacts) and responses to address it (i.e. climate change mitigation and adaptation, adaptive capacity and capacity development).
There are a few comprehensive reports and papers that provide useful evidence and discussion of the various impacts of climate change throughout Nigeria. The vast majority of the literature that provides evidence of climate change impacts and responses, however, focuses on the agricultural sector and on individual farming communities in particular regions of the country. Discussion of other mitigation and adaptation measures in the literature often takes the form of recommendations, rather than examples of what has already been achieved.
This is likely due to the need for much greater implementation of mitigation and adaption measures in Nigeria. In addition, while there is some discussion about necessary capacity building at the individual, group and community level to engage in climate change responses, there is much less attention given to higher levels of capacity at the state and national level.
- Nigeria’s climate is likely to see growing shifts in temperature, rainfall, storms, and sea levels throughout the twenty-first century. Poor adaptive responses to these shifts could help fuel violent conflict in some areas of the country.
- A basic causal mechanism links climate change with violence in Nigeria. Under it, poor responses to climatic shifts create shortages of resources such as land and water. Shortages are followed by negative secondary impacts, such as more sickness, hunger, and jobless- ness. Poor responses to these, in turn, open the door to conflict.
- Drawing lines of causation between climate change and conflict in specific areas of Nigeria calls for caution, however, particularly as the scientific, social, economic, and political implications of the country’s changing climate are still poorly understood. President Good- luck Jonathan’s government needs to initiate a serious program of research and policy discussion before taking major adaptive steps.
- Government and private actors also need to ensure that particular adaptive responses do not themselves fuel violence but actively help build peace. Successful adaptation measures will be crosscutting in design and impact, based on inclusive planning and implementation, steer clear of political patronage traps, and confront political and scientific uncertainty.
- Solid engagement on the part of the Nigerian federal government is key to achieving the best outcomes, even if most adaptation is done privately. Thus far, official responses have been weak. Along with better information and discussion, Nigeria needs a main federal oversight body to coordinate research and policy, larger roles for sister agencies, and an implementation plan. The country also needs and deserves the help of more developed nations in the form of both adaptation funding and technical assistance
